Wednesday, September 27, 2006

NFL Power Rating 3 weeks in

Weekly Picks - Edge of Spread 2.0

  1. San Diego (2-0) (ats 2-0)
  2. Indy (3-0) (ats 3-0)
  3. Baltimore (3-0) (ats 2-1)
  4. Chicago (3-0) (ats 2-1)
  5. JAX (2-1) (ats 2-1)
  6. Cincy (3-0) (ats 3-0)
  7. Seattle (3-0) (ats 2-1)
  8. Pittsburgh (1-2) (ats 1-2)
  9. Atlanta (2-1) (ats 2-1)
  10. Denver (2-1) (ats 1-2)
  11. Philly (2-1) (ats 2-1)
  12. New Orleans (3-0) (ats 3-0)
  13. New England (2-1) (ats 1-2)
  14. Jets (2-1) (ats 2-1)
  15. Minny (2-1) (ats 3-0)
  16. Giants (1-2) (ats 1-2)
  17. St Louis (2-1) (ats 2-1)
  18. Dallas (1-1) (ats 1-1)
  19. Carolina (1-2) (ats 0-3)
  20. Buffalo (1-2) (ats 2-1)
  21. KC (0-2) (ats 1-1)
  22. Arizona (1-2) (ats 0-3)
  23. Tenn (0-3) (ats 1-2)
  24. Detroit (0-3) (ats 1-2)
  25. Miami (1-2) (ats 0-3)
  26. Red Skins (1-2) (ats 1-2)
  27. San Francisco (1-2) (ats 2-1)
  28. Green Bay (1-2) (ats 1-2)
  29. Tampa (0-3) (ats 1-2)
  30. Cleveland (0-3) (ats 1-2)
  31. Houston (0-3) (ats 0-3)
  32. Oakland (0-2) (ats 0-2)

Numbers after the team name = first set is the team record - second set is record Against The Spread= ats.

There are 4 categories: Elite, Plus, Minus, Suck. Ratings are forward looking - it's what I expect them to do next week and the rest of the season.

Elite = expect to win any game - home or away - even against another elite team. Elite team is expected to win 3 of 4 remaining games.

Plus = expect to win 3 of 5 remaining games.

Minus = expect to win 2 of 5 remaining games

Suck = expect to win 1 of 4 remaining games - or worse.

Teams listed in order. Categories are indicated by the horizontal lines.

Basic betting strategy: Find the mis-match games with reasonable spread (6.5 or so). Example: elite v. minus, or plus v suck and bet the favorite. Or, find a game with 2 teams in the same category and spread of 5.0 (or more) - either take the points or bet the under-dog to win the game outright.

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