NFL Power Rating 3 weeks in

Weekly Picks - Edge of Spread 2.0

1. San Diego (2-0) (ats 2-0)
2. Indy (3-0) (ats 3-0)
3. Baltimore (3-0) (ats 2-1)
4. Chicago (3-0) (ats 2-1)
5. JAX (2-1) (ats 2-1)
6. Cincy (3-0) (ats 3-0)
7. Seattle (3-0) (ats 2-1)

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8. Pittsburgh (1-2) (ats 1-2)
9. Atlanta (2-1) (ats 2-1)
10. Denver (2-1) (ats 1-2)
11. Philly (2-1) (ats 2-1)
12. New Orleans (3-0) (ats 3-0)
13. New England (2-1) (ats 1-2)
14. Jets (2-1) (ats 2-1)
15. Minny (2-1) (ats 3-0)
16. Giants (1-2) (ats 1-2)
17. St Louis (2-1) (ats 2-1)
18. Dallas (1-1) (ats 1-1)

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19. Carolina (1-2) (ats 0-3)
20. Buffalo (1-2) (ats 2-1)
21. KC (0-2) (ats 1-1)
22. Arizona (1-2) (ats 0-3)
23. Tenn (0-3) (ats 1-2)
24. Detroit (0-3) (ats 1-2)

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25. Miami (1-2) (ats 0-3)
26. Red Skins (1-2) (ats 1-2)
27. San Francisco (1-2) (ats 2-1)
28. Green Bay (1-2) (ats 1-2)
29. Tampa (0-3) (ats 1-2)
30. Cleveland (0-3) (ats 1-2)
31. Houston (0-3) (ats 0-3)
32. Oakland (0-2) (ats 0-2)

Numbers after the team name = first set is the team record - second set is record Against The Spread= ats.

There are 4 categories: Elite, Plus, Minus, Suck. Ratings are forward looking - it's what I expect them to do next week and the rest of the season.

Elite = expect to win any game - home or away - even against another elite team. Elite team is expected to win 3 of 4 remaining games.

Plus = expect to win 3 of 5 remaining games.

Minus = expect to win 2 of 5 remaining games

Suck = expect to win 1 of 4 remaining games - or worse.

Teams listed in order. Categories are indicated by the horizontal lines.

Basic betting strategy: Find the mis-match games with reasonable spread (6.5 or so). Example: elite v. minus, or plus v suck and bet the favorite. Or, find a game with 2 teams in the same category and spread of 5.0 (or more) - either take the points or bet the under-dog to win the game outright.